There are three types of radical right governments according to Sam Freedman.
Type 1: Chaotic Authoritarianism (Trump, Bolsonaro)
- Prioritise purity over reality.
- Constant institutional confrontation, illegal overreach.
- Markets and courts regularly push back.
- Politically unstable and often ends in collapse.
Type 2: Focused Authoritarianism (Orbán)
- Highly strategic pursuit of power.
- Works with reality economically to maintain enough support.
- Gradually neuters courts, media, and electoral safeguards.
- Long-term entrenchment.
Type 3: Technocratic Populism (Meloni)
- Ideologically hard-right on culture, but pragmatic on economics and EU rules.
- Works within state machinery while incrementally boosting executive power.
- Politically durable.
Which Model Would Reform likely follow?
Sam Freedman predicts a hybrid:
- Farage resembles Trump stylistically but is more rational and less delusional.
- He lacks Orbán’s discipline and strategic patience, or Meloni’s governing experience.
- The party’s inexperience, internal contradictions, and dependency on wealthy donors will create instability.
A key indicator to watch:
Does Reform pivot from tax cuts for the wealthy toward support for lower-income voters (as Orbán and Meloni did)?
Rumours suggest they may shift towards protecting benefits and opposing disability cuts but donor pressure pulls the opposite way.
Overall Conclusion
Reform must be analysed as a potential governing party, not just an insurgency. Their choices between reality and fantasy, and between working with or dismantling the state will determine whether they resemble Trump, Orbán, Meloni, or a volatile mix of all three.
Freedman stresses that none of these models is “good,” but the risks to the UK economy, democracy, and political norms vary greatly depending on which path they choose.
STOP REFORM UK 