What is Reform UK’s political impact?

Despite holding only five seats in the House of Commons, Reform UK received 14.3% of the vote in the last election (2024), reflecting significant support among the electorate, especially over issues like immigration and economic reform. Without Reform UK it is estimated that the Tories would have got 41 more seats, Labour would have got 27 fewer seats.

In 2025, Reform UK is also driving Labour government policy over immigration. One of the more concerning aspects of the rise of Reform is the apparent capitulation of mainstream parties to their rhetoric. Despite its overall electoral success, Labour has shown signs of shifting its stance to the right, especially on issues of migration. Keir Starmer’s expressed “great interest” in the asylum policies of far-right leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni signals a troubling convergence of policies between Labour and Reform UK on immigration. Labour’s willingness to entertain such views risks further normalizing the anti-migrant sentiments that have become a hallmark of the far-right agenda, ultimately playing into the hands of parties like Reform UK.

With all the free publicity that Reform gets in the media and social media, the party are influencing public opinion on a number of key issues, impacting voter polling data and forcing the Tories and Labour to decide what policies to prioritise based on that polling data.