STOP REFORM UK

Can Reform UK win the next general election?

Predicting the outcome of the next general election (expected to be in 2028 or 2029) is not possible at this stage but Reform UK is certainly something to be concerned about in terms of doing better in elections and the right-wing impact they are having on UK politics.

There are several factors that will impact the outcome of the next general election:

  • Possibly the biggest factor of Reform’s success will be the success or failure of the Labour government in terms of rebuilding public services, growing the economy, improving living standards and effectively communicating these improvements to voters. Some economists are predicting labour will fail.
  • Are the polls to be believed? Polls are now giving Reform around 25% of the vote, similar to Labour and the Tories. Some argue the polls are overstating Reform’s support. Others that Reform poll support is accurate. Also Labour are unpopular due to several unpopular policies and we will have to wait and see if their policies to rebuilding public services and improve living standards will work. 
  • The UK electoral system First Past the Post (FPTP) was a disadvantage to Reform in the last election but if Reform’s support is over 20%, then FPTP could result in Reform getting over 100 seats. 
  • Can Reform UK party stabilise and professionalise: early 2025 saw party infighting between Farage and Lowe. Farage is known to be difficult to work with so Reform’s future success will depend on if the party stabilises and becomes more professional.
  • Will Farage support for Trump cause Reform problems: If Trump’s radical policies end in economic disaster this could prove very damaging to Reform among swing voters who they are currently trying to appeal to. 
  • UK voters are currently highly volatile, with few having strong attachments to a single party. The UK saw the Tories get a large majority in 2019, then a huge swing to Labour in 2024, and if Labour failed to perform the next general election could result in another electoral shock.

The 2020s are a hyper marginal period in UK politics with over 266 highly marginal seats, whereas it is normally under 100.