Farage’s Decisive Return
- Nigel Farage resuming leadership of Reform was the single most important event of the 2024 campaign, boosting the party’s vote by around five percentage points.
- Without Farage, the Conservatives might have recovered into the high-20s and secured a more respectable seat total.
RUK underperformed
Even with Farage, Reform finished only slightly above UKIP’s 2015 vote share and fell short of polling expectations.
RUK organisational weakness
- Reform lacked preparation, party structure, and an activist base, limiting on-the-ground campaigning.
- Minimal voter contact:
- Only about 1 in 8 voters recalled receiving a Reform leaflet.
- Almost no voters reported door-to-door canvassing.
- Reform’s contact levels were lower than all national parties except the Greens.
- Reform did far less traditional campaigning than Labour, the Conservatives, or the Liberal Democrats.
Future improvement likely
- Membership has grown significantly since the election.
- Local election successes and expanded infrastructure suggest stronger performance next time.
- More organisers have been recruited, often with Conservative Party experience.
Hostile right-wing press in 2024
- Reform faced sustained attacks from traditionally Conservative-leaning newspapers, especially the Daily Mail.
- Media criticisms included:
- Dismissing Reform’s policies as “threadbare”.
- Mocking its manifesto
Success or failure of Labour government
Possibly the biggest factor of Reform’s success will be the success or failure of the Labour government in terms of rebuilding public services, growing the economy, improving living standards and effectively communicating these improvements to voters. Some economists are predicting labour will fail.
STOP REFORM UK 